PREDICTIONS 04.10.08

Most American states will have concealed carry permits within five years, and roughly 5 percent of the population will be carrying a handgun at all times. The results of this will surprise both sides of the gun control debate. Despite the increase in citizens who are armed, crime rates will neither go up nor down. Concealed handguns will so rarely be used in self-defense against crime that having a handgun on your person will be statistically insignificant when faced with street crime. At the same time, people with concealed handguns will very rarely accidentally injure or kill an innocent stranger, so carrying a handgun will not make things more dangerous, as gun control advocates worry. It just won’t make that much difference at all, in part because very few people will choose to have handguns, in part because of the rarity of the situations in which an armed civilian might need to use a handgun.